The Democratic Party’s Big Lie

As I listened to the oral arguments yesterday in the United States Supreme Court (Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization) the state of play about the future of our democracy was as crystal clear as it’s ever been. I wondered why — with the obvious trajectory of not only the Supreme Court — but its inferior federal courts around the nation, the Democratic Party is still intent upon wishcasting an electoral future that is impossible to achieve under current conditions.

Supreme Court of the United States (Washington, D.C.)

Two years before the Court heard arguments from the State of Mississippi, seeking to overturn the seminal abortion rights cases of Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, it decided a case on strictly partisan grounds that slammed shut the idea of the states being representative republics. In Gil v. Whitford, the Court’s conservative majority (then only a bare 5–4) threw up its hands, claiming that, as “distasteful” as partisan gerrymandering is, there’s just simply nothing they could do to help people harmed by it.

It is no doubt convenient and I’m sure not at all coincidental, that at the time of the Whitford ruling, Republicans controlled the legislatures of a majority of states, meaning — without any judicial oversight — they remained free to slice and dice states to ensure their electoral victories bear only a limited relationship to their receipt of actual votes. The Supreme Court majority’s seemingly smirking opinion made clear that ideological majorities are on their own to protect any semblance of control over a state legislative body. After all, “the people” decide the politics, and district drawing is politics pure and simple. The problem of course, is that “the people” are only those whom the currently-elected legislators want them to be.

It was therefore all the more brazen and disquieting to hear nearly all the six conservative justices wax poetic about the rights of the people to determine their political outcomes, without a shred of irony. This same court (absent its two most recent additions), of course wrote the decision to take these kinds of decisions away from political majorities that live in heavily gerrymandered states.

Despite the conservative Justices end zone dancing and the requisite warnings about a crisis of judicial legitimacy from Justices Sotomayor and Kagan, the Democratic Party seems to remain either wilfully ignorant or delusionally optimistic about its chances to implement 21st century policies in America. So as someone who has studied politics throughout my life, and attended law school with a dedicated eye to federal constitutional issues, let me lay out the state of play for you in a way that is clear and concise.

1. The idea that any party in this age of media ecosystem isolation and political polarization can overcome the structural disadvantages of both Republican gerrymandering and geographic clustering is not so much laughable, as it should require the espouser to seek care for their mental health;
2. The idea that “a court” whether it be a District, Appellate, or the Supreme Court of the United States will step in to protect the rights of Democratic Voters in any fashion has been blown to smithereens. And anyone peddling hope or asking for money to pursue such a cause should be viewed with a great deal of skepticism;
3. If members and supporters of the Democratic Party (and/or its policies) do not geographically diversify themselves, the party will spend the next several decades as a party governing only urban and suburban sprawls, with even waning power in those places. As we saw under Trump, the GOP culture warriors increasingly view it as the north star of their state power centers, to denigrate and resource-strap heavily populated blue cities and towns. This trend will only accelerate with the entrenchment of the GOP’s power;
4. If the Democratic Party does not develop a plan to engage the upwardly mobile and laterally mobile elder millennials, Gen Zers, and the Alpha generation, to reconsider their decisions en masse to live in the most populated areas in the country, the Party is effectively dead;
5. The pandemic was and is a slow rolling disaster that has killed hundreds of thousands of Americans, but as a result, the country has also experienced a boom in employment mobility. Many jobs that previously were not conducted remotely can be done so now. Therefore, a unique opportunity exists for center left and left leaning Americans to find sweet spots of the American dream in places that they previously may not have considered: Montana, Idaho, North Carolina, Georgia, South Dakota, North Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and so on;
6. Several of these states are more affordable than the places currently occupied by the so called “coastal elite” and further, are experiencing a boom in business development;
7. Additionally, the above-mentioned locales also possess some of the safest areas in the country from the effects of climate change. As an example, a movement over the next several decades to rural and semi-rural locations within North Carolina, Idaho, the Dakotas, and Montana of 100,000 left-leaning and civically active Americans could make a huge difference in the implementation of Democratic power in the U.S. Senate;
8. These changes alone would have monumental implications in both state legislative races, and in the confirmation of liberal judges and justices to the federal bench. Not to mention that victories in these places would likely increase the number of Senators willing to eliminate the filibuster, the greatest impediment to progress in American government;
9. People plan their geographic moves based on a host of factors, from schools and safety, to scenic views and restaurant amenities. All I’m arguing is that, based on the tenuous state of our democracy, it is imperative that individuals add a factor to their life changes, political maps. If left-leaning folks do not start to implement a political survey in their geographic decisions, all will absolutely be lost.

At bottom, the Democratic Party is either lying to itself or lying to all of us supporters and members. The red lights have been flashing for so long that the bulbs are now burnt out.

Any promises or hopes for resounding electoral victories (without significant geographic action) are hollow at best, actively misleading at worst. My recommendation is to not wait on the party to help facilitate or guide this flow.

Take it upon yourself when considering a move, whether it be cross-state or cross-country, to look at where your vote will actually matter. Find a closely competitive legislative district with a charming cottage and white picket fence, or buy a piece of empty land in a rural district that has an independent streak and put up a frame. If we don’t start making competitiveness a factor in our living decisions, we won’t need to worry about it anymore, because the party representing our beliefs will be as dead as abortion rights appear to be in the State of Mississippi.